The US and Iran are moving toward a framework agreement that would end hostilities, lift sanctions, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and tackle Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

The Strait of Hormuz is the choke point through which roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil flows. Reopening it sits at the center of these negotiations, alongside the thornier question of what Iran does with its enrichment capabilities.

A phased approach to an ancient standoff

The structure taking shape appears to be phased. Ceasefire terms and Hormuz transit come first. The deeper nuclear discussions get deferred to later rounds.

This is roughly the same sequencing problem that plagued the JCPOA, the 2015 nuclear deal that…