A midyear outlook from alts platform iCapital warns that the second half of 2026 will likely see slower economic growth, with greater scrutiny of artificial intelligence investments, weaker U.S. consumer spending and persistent inflation and the implications for both traditional investment and private market assets.

iCapital researchers noted that, despite geopolitical headwinds, growth in the first half of the year was quite strong, with S&P 500 earnings per share up 25% year over year in the first quarter. However, they estimate that a confluence of factors could slow growth in the third quarter. These include a lack of a definitive resolution of the war in Iran, which iCapital researchers feel the market has underpriced; greater investor…