How far along are we in this crypto bear market? Fidelity’s Q3 Signal Report provides a set of indicators: the weighted NUPL has dropped to -0.01, BTC dominance has risen to 68%, and multiple metrics are nearing historical capitulation zones. Referring to the approximately 300-day bottoming periods in 2018 and 2022, the current 203-day correction may have already completed two-thirds. The report notes that October 2026 is a time window to watch, but does not constitute a bottom prediction.

Author: Fidelity Digital Assets Research Team

Compiled by Jiahuan, ChainCatcher

I. Market Overview

Chart: Overview Dashboard of Three Major Asset Signals

Weighted NUPL: BTC Alone Supports the Market

Weighted NUPL measures whether a market-cap-weighted…