The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, its first hike since 2023. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed anyway, defying the old assumption that tighter policy always hurts risk assets.

Markets had priced in the move for days. That gap between expectation and reaction explains most of Wednesday’s price action, though it is not the whole story.

The Rate Hike Was Already Priced In

Interest rate futures put the odds of a hike at 92.7% just hours before the FOMC decision, according to BeInCrypto. Traders had already positioned for it well in advance.

Bitcoin dropped to around $75,350 shortly before the decision, then jumped past $76,100 within minutes of the release. It went…