TradingKey – Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) wrapped up the week at $381.58. On the daily chart, that puts the stock below its EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200, a textbook bearish moving average stack. Year-to-date, the stock has tumbled around 18%, and it’s down 24.6% over the last 12 months. In short, it’s been the weakest of the Magnificent Seven while the S&P 500 has put on 9% in the same timeframe. This isn’t about a weak business; Microsoft is growing at a solid clip. It’s $190 billion in capex guidance for 2026 that’s having investors wonder about the company’s free cash flow. 

The answer to that will come July 29, when Microsoft delivers its earnings for Q4 FY2026 after the closing bell. Wall Street’s expecting $87.7 billion in revenue, and…