Donald Trump’s ceasefire push has become one of the clearest market-moving stories of the past month, because investors have treated every hint of de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran-Israel war as a signal that the worst economic risks may be fading. Since the war has been the primary attributed reason for cryptocurrency markets staying low (whether completely true or not), this means that any rumor that the conflict is easing is met with immediate “buy the rumor” price action.

The conflict in the Middle East has going on for quite some time, but the current iteration (that most consider a full-blown war) began on February 28th with a joint U.S.-Israeli attack and then helped drive a severe Strait of Hormuz disruption, sent oil sharply…