September inflation accelerated to 3.7%, while core CPI exceeded expectations at 2.6%, despite payroll growth of only 29,000. On October 28, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote. Both dissenters favored an increase.

At the report’s snapshot, futures priced roughly an 80–85% probability of a 25-basis-point hike on December 9. Those expectations accompanied a broader tightening cycle: eight G10 central banks had raised rates over six months, although Binance Research’s measure of tightening momentum had eased from its July peak.

The research identified a similar slowdown before the previous cycle’s crypto recovery, which began ahead of rate cuts. October’s decline also followed a 6.1% fall in October…