A liquidation wave hit the crypto market, wiping out over $415M in positions within 24 hours, including $285M in shorts and $132M in longs. Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April sits at 65.5% YES.

Market reaction

The $80,000 Bitcoin target jumped from 44% to 65.5% over 24 hours. Trading volume is $261,995/day in face value and $105,235/day in actual USDC. It takes $24,792 to shift the odds 5 points, indicating moderate market thickness.

Why it matters

U.S.-Iran tension around the Strait of Hormuz is driving this volatility. Rising oil prices have pulled liquidity out of the market and forced miners to liquidate reserves, suppressing crypto prices and triggering the liquidation cascade. Bitcoin’s correlation with…