Ron Hammond, head of policy at crypto market maker Wintermute, has a cautious outlook on the Clarity Act, putting its chances of passage this year at around 30% even as momentum builds in Washington.

“There are a lot of moving parts,” Hammond said, pointing to a legislative process that is advancing, but unevenly. The Clarity Act aims to create rules around crypto market structure regulation in the U.S., including codifying how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee digital assets in the U.S.

Hammond’s estimate broadly aligns with other signals in the market. A recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers put the odds at 26%, while prediction market Kalshi has hovered just…