It almost feels like market expectations aren’t directly translating into crypto flows.

At the macro level, the latest employment report came in weaker than expected, with the U.S. economy “unexpectedly” losing 23,000 jobs in July, triggering a sharp shift in market expectations. According to FedWatch, rate hike odds dropped to 44% from 67% a week earlier, showing how quickly expectations can reprice on weaker labor data.

Normally, a setup like this would drive more capital into risk assets as markets price in easier financial conditions and a potential liquidity boost in H2. Yet crypto is up just 2% so far this month, while gold has surged more than 7% over the same period.

The weaker jobs data has also triggered a sharp move…