Sam Sivarajan is a behavioural scientist, keynote speaker and consultant. His latest book is The Uncertainty E.D.G.E., which helps leaders successfully navigate an increasingly uncertain world.

For investors, the temptation to outsmart the market is constant. Complex trading strategies, hot stock tips and sophisticated portfolio tactics promise superior returns. But decades of evidence tell a different story: Simplicity wins, especially when the future is uncertain.

Consider David VanBenschoten, who managed General Mills Inc.’s pension fund for 14 years with a strategy so unremarkable it looked boring. He never ranked above the 27th percentile in any single year. He…