The Federal Reserve’s struggle to manage a soft landing, where inflation falls without triggering a recession or a sharp rise in unemployment, will influence markets this week, with Wednesday’s FOMC minutes offering a closer look at whether the central bank is considering additional interest-rate increases.

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said he sees just a 25% chance of a Fed hike in September. Rather, he expects the first move in December, even as he forecasts inflation rising again in early 2027.

Geopolitical developments will also need to be monitored, given their strong influence on volatility expectations and the price of oil.

Higher interest rates make risky assets like cryptocurrencies…