Wall Street’s biggest names have thrown their weight behind a bill that was supposed to settle, once and for all, how the United States regulates digital assets. Yet with the Senate’s August recess just days away, the odds of the Clarity Act crypto regulation framework actually becoming law this year are sliding fast, according to a new Bernstein note that reframes what happens if Congress simply runs out of time.

Key takeaways

• Bernstein estimates the Clarity Act’s chances of passing in 2026 have fallen to roughly 30%, based on odds from Galaxy Research.
• A revised ethics compromise was submitted to the White House by senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego ahead of the Senate’s August 7 recess.
• Bernstein and CFTC Chair Michael…