Is the market too optimistic when it says Bitcoin [$BTC] may have bottomed?

Technically speaking, $BTC is set to close September with its highest wick at a level representing an eight-month high of $87k, rebounding from the July low of $57k. With an ROI of 40%+ in the Q3 cycle so far, the market is growing bullish. Some traders are even calling for a $100k reclaim by the end of October despite the macro volatility around the FOMC.

However, the latest Glassnode report paints a different picture. Based on Bitcoin’s historical bear cycles, $BTC is still only some 30% below its cycle high.

This is comparatively a very shallow drawdown for Bitcoin, given that in the 2013, 2017, and 2021 bear cycles, $BTC bottomed after drawdowns of over…