The Iran war has now crossed the one-month mark, and markets seem to be waking up to a reality check.

To understand where things might head next into Q2, it helps to look at where markets currently stand. From a technical standpoint, the past month has been pure volatility, driven by a few key moves: oil prices have surged over 50%, U.S. Treasury yields are up around 13%, while gold has dropped nearly 15%.

Against this backdrop, the crypto market’s 0.5% correction looks relatively muted, suggesting risk assets have held up well so far. But is that resilience now starting to get tested? Looking at the chart below, that scenario doesn’t seem too unlikely.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal…