A Balancer attacker has converted 21k ETH (about $48.7M) to 617 BTC over three days, leaving only 1k ETH in the hacker’s address. The probability of another $100 million crypto hack by December 31 is at 100% YES on Polymarket.

This conversion is part of the attacker’s ongoing liquidation of stolen funds. The crypto hack market sits at 100% YES with 251 days left until resolution. The certainty reflects how frequently hacks exceeding $100M have occurred, making another one before year-end a near-foregone conclusion.

The liquidation of this much ETH into BTC has added selling pressure on Ethereum. The probability of Ethereum being above $2,600 on April 26 is at 0.2% YES across multiple sub-markets. That market…