HTX Research expects choppy crypto trading before and after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections, saying a change in congressional control may shift policy expectations without, by itself, sustaining a market rally.

HTX Research, the exchange’s research arm, published its outlook Oct. 23. The report’s information cutoff was Oct. 15, and its exchange-traded fund figures run through Oct. 14. HTX Research’s base case is continued volatility, repeated repricing and different performance across assets. It says a lasting advance would require monetary-tightening expectations to stabilize, spot-market inflows to return and policy changes to create commercial opportunities.

HTX Research says inflation, financing costs and capital flows are…