The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is unlikely to finalize its proposed leverage trading regulations for digital assets before the 2028 presidential election, according to a new analysis. Investment bank TD Cowen projects that agency-led rulemaking will likely take longer than expected, with the election serving as a political wildcard that could determine the regulation’s fate.

Jaret Seiberg, managing director at TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, wrote in a note dated October 12 (local time) that “time is running short,” adding that a draft rule could emerge “as early as late Q1 or early Q2 2027,” with finalization potentially pushed to early 2028.

The CFTC initiated rulemaking last week to establish federal…