Brazil election is likely to require a second round

Several final polls have placed Lula ahead in the first round without giving him enough support to avoid another vote. CNT/MDA put Lula at 47.8% of valid votes and Bolsonaro at 42.1%, while Reuters reported that Datafolha, Quaest, CNT/MDA and AtlasIntel surveys all pointed toward a likely runoff.

The latest Datafolha runoff test was even tighter, with Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46%. Both figures fell within the survey’s margin of error, leaving the potential Oct. 25 contest statistically tied.

Prediction markets have presented a different picture from opinion polling. UOL reported on Oct. 1 that Polymarket contracts implied roughly a 62% chance of an eventual Bolsonaro victory,…