Transocean has delivered a strong 58.8% share price gain over the past year, even as the stock has been choppy in recent weeks, which puts a spotlight on whether that move is grounded in the cash it can generate. With a major offshore drilling deal now moving forward, the key issue for investors is how well the current price lines up with the cash flow profile implied by the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) intrinsic value estimate.

• That 58.8% one year return puts real pressure on the valuation case because it raises the bar for what Transocean’s future cash flows need to support.
• The planned US$5.8b all stock takeover of Valaris, now through US antitrust review, may reshape Transocean’s future cash flow path by changing the size, timing and…