Key Takeaways

• Target’s Q2 EPS more than doubled to $4.11, but $1.65 of that came from a one-time $994 million tariff refund; stripped out, EPS was still up roughly 20 to 24 percent, a real acceleration off last year’s markdown-heavy base.
• The Street believed the underlying number. In the seven weeks after the print, the mean analyst price target on Target stock jumped from $135.34 to $162.76, a 20 percent increase, and the high estimate moved from $170 to $200.
• The stock did not follow. Shares peaked near $170.73 five days after earnings, then fell 5 percent on a Halloween costume controversy that revived comparisons to 2023’s Pride Collection backlash, closing at $156.26 on September 23.
• For the first time in over a…