Bitcoin hit $86,000 on September 21, a level unseen since January 28. Experts called it “the first day of the bull market,” pointing to a puzzling market reaction. Two events widely expected to hurt crypto, the CLARITY Act’s failure and a 25 basis point Fed rate hike, instead coincided with Bitcoin climbing roughly 15% in just six days.

Why Bad News Didn’t Trigger A Selloff

Analyst John Gillen’s explanation rests on a simple idea: both events had already been priced in well before they actually happened. Prediction markets and yield curve pricing had made a Fed hike feel almost demanded by traders, so when it arrived, the reaction was muted rather than negative rather than negative.

The CLARITY Act’s failure followed the same…