Rate hikes are the opposite of what crypto rallied on for the last two years. Bitcoin’s 24% run from mid August to early September was built on $3.34 billion of US spot ETF inflows between 19 August and 4 September. That bid has now cooled: the last four sessions before 14 September produced $462.7 million of combined Bitcoin ETF outflows, ending a three week inflow streak. Institutional appetite did not vanish. It just stopped chasing.

The mitigating detail is that long term holders are not the ones selling. Glassnode’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio has dropped to 7 basis points per day from 16 at August’s peak, and long term holders accounted for only 47% of realised profits versus 88% in August. The old coins are staying put. What is missing…