TL;DR:

• A payrolls beat and Brent through $100 pushed September FOMC pricing back to a hike and the US 10Y above 4.8%, a three-year high. Gold closed lower and DXY did not strengthen; safe-haven money is parked in front-end cash.
• The hike is fully priced. Oil is the Q4 variable: a Brent pullback is the only path that relieves inflation expectations and rate pressure at the same time, while $40T of Treasury debt and doubled long-bond buybacks keep the long end pinned regardless of any single FOMC decision.
• ETF and stablecoin flows both pointed to outflows in the same week for the first time, under $500M combined. OI/market cap fell to ~0.034 and options repriced defensively, with DVOL at 40.2 and the front end of the ATM curve inverted.
• We…