Bitcoin’s inability to mount a sustained rally above $80,000 is now less about crypto fundamentals and more about the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate trajectory, according to a new analysis from CoinShares. The digital asset manager argues that investor flows are tracking shifting expectations for monetary policy rather than any change in conviction about the asset class itself.

The message from James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, is blunt: Bitcoin is trading “like gold again,” but monetary policy is effectively placing a ceiling on the price near $80,000. That dynamic was on full display in late August, when remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium triggered roughly $100 million in outflows from…