The market reacted positively to DraftKings on the headline, with the stock jumping about 8% to roughly $24 after earnings, even though the quarter swung back to a loss. That move rests on one core idea: investors are treating adjusted EBITDA of $115 million and reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $700 million to $900 million as evidence that the profit story remains intact.

Coming into the release, the stock had cooled over the past month and quarter. Today is a sentiment reset built around one key question: Is the path to that projected $1 billion core adjusted EBITDA in 2026 as solid as this reaction implies?

Is DraftKings a discounted growth story, or is the market paying too much for unproven earnings power at roughly $24 a share? Compare…