According to Thielen, traders are missing the key point that BTC’s failure to move lower despite the hawkish Fed is itself a bullish signal.

“Traders are underestimating the upside risk from a less hawkish Fed, and overlooking the possibility that the four-year cycle has already bottomed,” he noted.

Other market watchers point to erratic demand for ETFs, a preferred vehicle of institutional investors, as the reason for BTC’s underperformance. These U.S.-listed funds registered an outflow of $61.53 million, snapping an equally anemic three-week streak of inflows, according to data source SoSoValue. This week, they have pulled in $626 million in investor money, the highest tally since early May, but that trend needs to hold.

“Several…