Alibaba stock surged up to 9% intraday after unveiling Qwen3.8-Max, a 2.4 trillion-parameter AI model. Yet the daily chart flags overbought risk near key resistance, creating tension between the bullish catalyst and an incomplete trend structure.

Key takeaways

• BABA closed at 127.30, above the 20-day and 50-day EMAs but still below the 200-day EMA at 130.70.
• Daily RSI14 at 69.41 flirts with overbought territory while hourly RSI14 sits firmly overbought at 76.96.
• Price closed above the daily upper Bollinger Band at 126.05, signaling a breakout attempt but also raising mean-reversion risk.
• The hourly regime is outright bullish; the daily trend structure remains…