That didn’t happen, and probably catalyzed the closure of those bets during Friday’s 08:00 UTC expiry, which settled BTC and ether (ETH) options worth $10 billion. Notional open interest on the $70,000 call has fallen to $943 million, and on the $72,000 call to $888 million. While still significant, those levels are well below the $60,000 put.

Another interesting data point comes from seasonality. Since 2013, July has produced a median return of 8.61%. The price has risen by 8.9% this month, according to CoinDesk data. So far, so unexciting. But a positive July is usually followed by a negative August, producing a median return of -7.51%.

Median is useful here because it shows the typical outcome without being skewed by unusually…