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Polymarket and Kalshi Are ‘Likely’ Underestimating Odds of Crypto Bill Passage Due to Insider Trading Restrictions, Says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

Polymarket and Kalshi Are ‘Likely’ Underestimating Odds of Crypto Bill Passage Due to Insider Trading Restrictions, Says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

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Tom Lee, co-Founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said on Tuesday that the Clarity Act has stronger passage odds than shown in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Tom Lee ‘Bullish’ on Clarity Act Passage

Lee drew attention to comments by Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, who argued that prediction markets are not fully reflecting “informed expectations” about the bill’s passage.

Farrell said that “recent restrictions” were preventing Senators from trading on the outcome, and placed “less weight” on the quoted probability.

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