Perpetual futures contracts, affectionately known as “perps” in crypto circles, have become the instrument of choice for a growing cohort of US retail traders chasing outsized returns. The problem: the data on who actually wins this game is, to put it gently, discouraging.

What perps are and why they’re a problem

Think of a perpetual futures contract as a bet on the future price of a crypto asset, except there’s no expiration date. Traditional futures have a settlement date baked in. Perps just keep going, like a tab you never close at the bar.

The appeal is leverage. Platforms offer anywhere from 50x to over 100x leverage on these contracts, meaning a trader can control $100,000 worth of Bitcoin with just…