Arthur Hayes has turned sharply defensive on risk assets, warning that an AI stock-market unwind could spill into crypto before Bitcoin eventually benefits from the liquidity response that follows. In his June 9 essay “Reality Test,” the BitMEX co-founder said Maelstrom has cut several crypto positions while keeping Bitcoin and Ether as core holdings.

Hayes’ argument starts outside crypto, with oil. He frames the US-Iran conflict and reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic as the central macro variable for markets, arguing that higher hydrocarbon prices could feed inflation, constrain US political options and pressure the AI trade that has dominated capital allocation since late 2022.

“We start with oil and end with an election in Pax…