Patrick Hansen, Circle’s EU strategy and policy lead, says the bloc’s crypto tax revenue projections may fall short. The European Commission has modeled up to $23 billion across the 2028 to 2034 EU budget cycle.

Hansen argued that a transaction-based crypto tax would push users toward DeFi protocols. Self-custody wallets and non-EU venues would erode the centralized exchange volume Brussels expects to capture.

What the Commission’s Proposal Includes

The leaked Commission services paper outlines two crypto tax models for member states to consider:

Crypto-asset service providers (CASPs) would act as collection and reporting points.

Combined, the two options could yield close to $23 billion across the seven-year…