“Consequently, we think that returns in 2026 are likely to be driven more by fundamental profit growth rather than by rising valuations,” Oppenheimer writes. Our analysts’ 12-month global forecasts indicate equity prices, weighted by regional market cap, are expected to climb 9% and return 11% with dividends, in US dollars (as of January 6, 2026). “Most of these returns are earnings-driven,” he adds.

Commodity indexes are also expected to advance this year, with gains in precious metals again offsetting declines in energy, as occurred in 2025, according to a separate Goldman Sachs forecast.

Oppenheimer’s team examines what typically happens as markets move through cycles: despair as stocks fall in a bear market; a short…