President Donald Trump said on May 6 that US and Iranian negotiators had “very good talks” and that a deal had a “very good chance” of materializing. The comments, made across multiple media interviews, mark the most optimistic public framing yet of a diplomatic process that has been defined more by military threats than handshakes.

Markets noticed. Equities climbed, oil prices dropped, and Bitcoin caught a bid as traders recalibrated their risk models around the possibility that one of the world’s most combustible geopolitical flashpoints might actually cool down.

What’s on the table

The framework at the center of negotiations is a one-page memorandum of understanding containing 14 points. It’s…