Key takeaways
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Defence demand remains structural, but stock prices already reflect a lot of optimism.
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Europe is learning that relying on the United States comes with policy whiplash.
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The theme is spreading from tanks and ammunition to satellites, data and space infrastructure.
Defence investing used to look simple. Bad headline, defence stocks up. Peace headline, defence stocks down. Nice and tidy, like a spreadsheet before reality enters the room. That old shortcut is becoming less useful. Defence is no longer just a panic trade on scary news. It is becoming a long industrial cycle, shaped by politics, budgets, factories, supply chains and technology.
The peace premium is not the same as peace
The Iran story shows why markets are struggling…
