Why Most Junior Mining Investors Are Playing the Wrong Game

The history of speculative markets is littered with investors who were right about the asset and wrong about the price. They identified the trend, understood the geology, believed in the management team, and still lost money. This is not a paradox unique to mining. It is the defining feature of probabilistic markets, and it is the reason that Howard Marks You Bet junior mining investing offers one of the most rigorous frameworks ever written for thinking about uncertainty and decision quality.

The principles explored in Howard Marks’ memo You Bet, published by Oaktree Capital Management in January 2020, offer an accessible framework for thinking about uncertainty,…