Failed U.S.-Iran peace talks and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions are pressuring crypto prediction markets. Bitcoin’s odds of reaching $94,000 by early May sit at 0.1% YES, while a dip to $60,000 in April looks increasingly probable.

Market reaction

The Bitcoin $94K market has seen just $7 in USDC volume over the past 24 hours. The cost to move the market by 5 percentage points is $357, meaning even a small trade could shift the odds significantly. Solana’s chances of hitting $150 by April 30 are similarly flat, with no meaningful volume pointing to a rally. High energy prices and Middle East instability are keeping buyers away from both markets.

Why it matters

Unresolved tensions in the Middle East are…