Trump’s latest strategy includes a naval blockade and frozen crypto assets. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026, sit at 3% YES, down sharply from 10% yesterday.

The blockade and crypto freeze are part of a broader economic offensive that signals a harder US stance. The market for a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 sits at 30% YES, down from 38% a day ago. The June 30, 2026 contract is at 46% YES, consistent with expectations of prolonged tensions.

The “Trump’s Agreement to Iranian Demands in April” market shows similar skepticism, with odds at 7.5% YES, halved from 14% yesterday. The market is priced for a significant standoff through the end of April.

Trade volume tells the…