MooninPapa on X flags historical data pointing to an April BTC relief rally before sharper May-June drawdowns in what data suggests is a 2026 bear market cycle.

BTC has been wildly volatile this week. Nobody is arguing that part. What analysts are arguing about is what it actually means.

MooninPapa posted on X this week with a read most traders are probably not going to like. The volatility isn’t proof the bear market ended. If anything, the data is pointing somewhere more uncomfortable.

An April relief rally. Followed by a harder May and June.

Green Weeks That Hide Ugly Months

The Better Crypto Calendar is where MooninPapa anchored his case. Monthly return data across BTC, ETH, TOTALES, and the broader market all tell…