Inflation returns to the center of attention this week, with a fresh inflow of data likely to shape expectations for U.S. interest rates and risk assets like bitcoin .
Thursday’s U.S. core PCE reading for February and Friday’s March CPI release will test the view that the Federal Reserve can afford to wait before cutting rates. Earlier this year, rate cuts looked almost certain. That has shifted. On Polymarket, odds of no rate cuts in 2026 climbed from about 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%.
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said on social media that bitcoin has been “pricing in a (U.S.) recession already” and has acted as a “canary in the coal mine,” falling below signals from financial conditions…
