Takeaways by Axi Select

• The correlation between oil and broader markets is loosening at the margin, but not breaking, creating a window where risk assets can drift higher even as energy risk firms
• The market is pricing eventual resolution while oil continues to price the friction of the path, leaving a volatility pocket between belief and reality
• Macro data is turning less supportive for equities, meaning any oil-driven inflation shock will land on a far more fragile foundation than markets are currently acknowledging

The Fog of Strategy Refuses to Clear

The tape feels like a market trying to look past the fire while still smelling the smoke.

Yesterday gave us the full theatre. Washington floated what looked less like a negotiation and…