Elliot Dornbusch thinks there’s about a 50/50 chance that the Strait of Hormuz blockage becomes an extended crisis that pushes the economy toward recession.

He thinks those odds are too high not to have your portfolio in a defensive position — especially as someone who oversee $22 billion for CV Advisors.

“This thing can go further than people believe,” he told Business Insider on Wednesday. “I’m less concerned about making less and more concerned about protection if there’s a black swan event.”

Dornbusch expects a near-term inflation blip as oil prices stay elevated, but if the Strait remains closed, higher consumer prices will eventually lead to demand destruction, sending the economy into a…