There is an old military saying that “no plan survives first contact with the enemy,” and it appears that Iran may have ignored this rule in its response to the recent attacks by the United States and Israel. These attacks, along with similar strikes carried out last year, can be viewed as an extension of the war that Iran effectively launched through Hamas’ deadly attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. In any case, several unexpected factors are now emerging that could threaten to prolong disruptions in the Middle East for years to come, with oil, gas, and gasoline prices rising significantly.

Iran’s new leader, who closely resembles his predecessor, has encouraged this situation by maintaining the effective…