data point through the rates lens: if oil stays high, bond yields can rise as traders price in stickier inflation and fewer central bank rate cuts.

Why should I care?

For markets: Oil’s direction is doing the heavy lifting.

A stable tape in crude can take the edge off inflation fears and give growth areas like software and semiconductors room to rebound. A weaker “safe-haven” bid can also spill into crypto and metals, but that support tends to fade fast if oil resumes climbing. In other words, today’s relief is conditional – it hinges on energy not reigniting.

The bigger picture: Energy shocks are still the quickest route back to tight policy.

If higher oil prices start pushing up longer-term inflation expectations, central…