Bapcor’s (ASX: BAP) underlying EBITDA fell 40% on last year to $77 million. The decline brings net debt/EBITDA at Dec. 31, 2025, to 3.4, precariously close to its 3.5 covenant. The company is raising $200 million in new equity, to nearly double the share count and cut pro forma net debt/EBITDA to 1.7.

Why it matters: Earnings have collapsed, and the second half is poised to be similarly poor and worse than we expected. The company is now guiding to underlying EBITDA of $150 million to $160 million, 31% below our prior forecast at the midpoint.

• Trade is the big disappointment, with segment EBITDA down 33%. The once resilient Burson business is core to our valuation and Bapcor’s narrow economic moat, and is still the majority of…