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Cryptocurrency bettors see only a small chance that the Trump administration will be forced to refund U.S. importers, even though the Supreme Court struck down the emergency-law tariffs.

Polymarket odds tumbled to 18% as of this writing, down from 39% on Friday.

Just over $145,000 has been wagered on the outcome. It will resolve to “Yes” if previously collected tariffs are repaid in any form, such as direct payments, credits, or offsets from U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury, by June 30.

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Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to buy “Yes” and “No”…