Crypto bets on war go mainstream
The following is a guest post by Nischal Shetty, co-founder and President at Shardeum.
On 2nd January 2026, an anonymous trader on crypto prediction platform Polymarket put down roughly $30,000 on a contract that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by 31 January 2026. Within hours of a U.S. special forces raid that resulted in Maduro’s capture, that position was worth more than $436,000. Meanwhile, traders had placed over $10.5 million on related bets about a U.S. invasion this year, many tying outcomes to specific deadlines in January, March, and December. Some participants staked tens of thousands of dollars on these geopolitical questions. Polymarket has since refused to settle certain contracts, triggering accusations of…
