Last year, the capital markets have become accustomed to Trump and will no longer weigh his words with such care. In our view, the key capital market issues in 2026 will be the new Fed chair and the extent to which the Fed succeeds in securing market confidence. The French political and fiscal drama is likely to continue throughout 2026. In the second half of the year, the focus will then shift to the midterm elections in the US. In any case, Trump will remain with us and is likely to spring a surprise or two before the midterms in November.
On the equity side, we are starting 2026 with almost the same signs as 2025: at the beginning of 2025, the discussion about an AI bubble and high valuations was already in full swing – and 2026 is…
