Fed Rate-Cut Odds Collapse as Crypto and Markets Face Fresh Risk
Combined with heightened volatility in crypto and equities – where Bitcoin’s sharp decline erased weeks of gains – the market is entering a recalibration phase where monetary easing is no longer assumed and risk assets face renewed downside pressure.
Absent Data Leaves Policymakers Without Evidence to Cut
The sharp repricing began after a prolonged government shutdown halted the release of October employment data. Without wage growth, job creation, and labor-force participation metrics, the Fed lacks critical evidence to justify a pivot toward easing – especially while inflation remains above the 2% target.
Historically, cuts occur after confirmed labor deterioration, not predictive forecasts, making the shutdown uniquely…
